Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.585023 3.118466 3.717966 4.439148 5.280550 6.228482 7.374446
2025-05-18 1.717964 2.357063 3.156606 4.220419 5.587458 7.272770 9.493607
2025-05-25 1.199132 1.840592 2.720434 3.994079 5.764997 8.110748 11.417093
2025-06-01 0.920623 1.557881 2.503663 3.973086 6.152898 9.212322 13.760967
2025-06-08 0.736540 1.361052 2.355337 3.998656 6.575907 10.374645 16.279691
2025-06-15 0.592913 1.190296 2.205564 3.981208 6.909086 11.416479 18.702595
2025-06-22 0.454711 0.993031 1.969891 3.776557 6.904551 11.925680 20.349974
2025-06-29 0.373631 0.880698 1.856508 3.752523 7.177753 12.877634 22.749108
2025-07-06 0.309054 0.784583 1.752829 3.724232 7.430259 13.806707 25.176721
2025-07-13 0.283862 0.766180 1.794630 3.969264 8.189512 15.645272 29.248332
2025-07-20 0.251663 0.723787 1.779305 4.098431 8.745356 17.174268 32.906410
2025-07-27 0.228730 0.697893 1.793605 4.286827 9.429235 18.980351 37.172343
2025-08-03 0.192767 0.630933 1.708155 4.261159 9.705339 20.094381 40.343809
2025-08-10 0.154626 0.546932 1.567045 4.093334 9.675836 20.638744 42.531419
2025-08-17 0.121878 0.467523 1.419876 3.886416 9.536141 20.953699 44.310127
2025-08-24 0.103422 0.425734 1.359107 3.870251 9.798466 22.068784 47.675963
2025-08-31 0.089482 0.394091 1.318737 3.896650 10.155485 23.398890 51.547530
2025-09-07 0.076245 0.360196 1.264846 3.880049 10.411336 24.539629 55.121701
2025-09-14 0.060077 0.308817 1.148173 3.680132 10.214935 24.716053 56.769993
2025-09-21 0.051078 0.282095 1.100175 3.656684 10.435723 25.795444 60.330202
2025-09-28 0.043378 0.257578 1.053494 3.629044 10.641912 26.856901 63.920907
2025-10-05 0.041730 0.260011 1.097181 3.868588 11.545416 29.529176 71.073977
2025-10-12 0.038132 0.251723 1.102322 3.994877 12.170402 31.617312 77.100054